Interprovincial household movement was estimated at over half a billion rand in relocation-linked economic activity last year.
Relative cost of housing and settling in each region drives migration value
The data shows that the value per move varies significantly depending on the destination market says Chante Venter, the CEO of Wise Move.
She says moves into higher-priced regions such as the Western Cape tend to carry a higher economic value per household, while moves into more affordable regions like Gauteng reflect a lower cost of entry.
“This highlights an important point: migration value is not just driven by volume, but by the relative cost of housing and settling in each region.”
The data is based on Wise Move’s 2026 migration report for the main provinces (Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu Natal)
These estimates are based on a model that uses household size, location and actual moving costs as proxies for economic activity. They reflect the broader ecosystem around relocation, including transport, labour and related services, rather than full property transaction values.
The online moving platform says each move represents more than a change of address as it reflects real economic activity across multiple sectors.
Migration data is an early signal of demand
For the property sector, Wise Move says migration data is an early demand signal. The platform says when more households move into an area, it can support demand for rentals, sectional title units, family homes, schools and lifestyle-driven developments.
“When more households move out, it may soften demand in some segments, but it can also create stock availability for new buyers.
70% of moves are local and 30% are interprovincial
“Importantly, the overall structure of movement remains stable – around 70% of moves are local and 30% interprovincial – but the direction of interprovincial movement is shifting.”
Link between migration and property demand
These findings align with broader property market data, says Venter. She says that according to FNB, house price growth remains modest, with affordability and borrowing costs continuing to shape buyer behaviour.
The CEO says relocation-driven sales account for a meaningful share of transactions, reinforcing the link between migration and property demand.
She says this suggests that household movement is increasingly influenced by economic factors such as affordability, employment access and cost of living, rather than purely lifestyle considerations.
The platform says migration decisions are becoming more practical and economically driven.
Households are weighing:
•Affordability of housing
•Access to employment
•Cost of living
•Service delivery and infrastructure
As a result, the platform says movement patterns are increasingly aligned with economic opportunity and value for money, rather than purely aspirational or lifestyle-driven choices.
Housing demand becoming more price-sensitive and region-specific
The key implication is that housing demand is becoming more price-sensitive and region-specific, says Venter.
She says higher-cost regions may continue to attract demand, but affordability constraints will influence who is able to move there. “At the same time, more affordable regions may see sustained or returning demand as households prioritise financial sustainability.”
These estimates are based on anonymised Wise Move data from over 30,000 household moves across South Africa in 2024/2025.
The model uses:
•Household size (as a proxy for property scale)
•Origin and destination location
•Actual moving costs and distance
All this is to estimate the economic activity associated with each move.
These figures:
•Represent relocation-linked economic activity (including •transport, labour and related services)
•Do not represent full property transaction values
•Should be interpreted as directional indicators of demand and movement patterns, says Wise Move.
Data on intra-provincial relocation published by Wise Move confirms the attraction of the Western Cape relative to other provinces, with KwaZulu-Natal remaining fairly stable and the Eastern Cape showing a modest net gain from inward migration, Dr Roelof Botha, Economic Advisor to the Optimum Investment Group.
Western Cape recorded a net gain of almost 2 000 households, whilst Gauteng lost more than 3 600 households in 2025
He says when analysing the number of moves in and out of the three provinces with the largest metros and relating these data to the average number of households, the Western Cape recorded a net gain of almost 2 000 households during 2025, whilst Gauteng lost more than 3,600 households. “Based on household expenditure data, this meant a loss of R927 million for the Gauteng economy (for this sample group).”
The Wise Move data correlates to a large extent to information on average house prices for selected regions compiled by BetterBond, Botha says.
He adds that during the 12-month period ended 31 March 2026, the average house price in the Western Cape increased by 9%, followed by the Greater Pretoria region at 6.9% and the Eastern Cape at 5.2%. Together with KwaZulu-Natal, he says these were the only four regions that recorded increases in residential property prices above the rate of inflation.
Western Cape average house prices leads at R2.3 million for the 12 months to March 2026.
When adjusted for the consumer price index, average house prices in Johannesburg’s North-Western suburbs, declined by 6.3% and by 1.7% in the city’s South-Eastern suburbs, says Botha. The economist says house prices tracked by BetterBond indicate that the Western Cape remains way out in front, with an average price of R2.3 million for the 12 months to March 2026, followed by Greater Pretoria at R1.76 million, compared to a national average of R1.62 million.
Johannesburg service delivery challenges
The problems associated with service delivery in Johannesburg, especially decaying roads and unreliable water supply, have undoubtedly contributed to the exodus of many households from Gauteng, as also illustrated by the sharp decline since 2023 in the average monthly value of residential building plans passed, says Botha.
He says the latter dataset is published by Statistics SA and indicates that approved building plans for houses and flats have stabilised in the Western Cape and in KwaZulu-Natal, mainly due to lower interest rates during last year. “Unfortunately for Gauteng, however, this indicator has remained on a downward trend, having declined by 31% over the past two years.”
